CHUA-LIM DEBATE

I was in a kopitiam in Raja Uda watching the debate. After watching the debate, below are my personal comments on that. I divided it into two perspective, political view and academic view.

Politically, both sides did manage to entertain the crowd. They know what the issues that they should focus on are and what are the issues that they should sweep under the carpet. They are also good in creating an imaginary situation that favour to their side. Thumb up for them. For example, Lim keeps on avoiding issue on PAS. Chua argues that DAP itself has already failed in securing abolishment of Sungai Nyoir toll collection. They also argue in terms of economy, which on the surface level rather than feasible framework. Anyhow, both of them generally are able to please the crowd. Personally, from the beginning, I think that Lim is slightly nervous compared to Chua. Not really sure about this thing, but I analyse it from the tiny actions hand signs coming from him.

However, in an academic or university debating level, both speakers do not really answer the crux of the debate. The main point of contention that Lim needs to answer is the relationship of DAP and PAS. He failed to give an assurance that PAS definitely wouldn’t be able to form an Islamic State while maintaining as a member of PR should they won enough Parliamentary seats. At the end of the day, a grand coalition party is not about a component party alone, but rather the cooperation between all component parties. The success of a single or dominant component party can’t help the overall grand coalition to succeed. This can be seen through UMNO in Penang State Assembly.

Same case happened to Chua. It is already well-known that BN and UMNO are corrupted. I will still be using the same dictum that I used to use. Whatever truth does not important, it is the people perspective that matters. Since corruption image has severely attached to BN generally, Chua needs to address the issue well. If can’t, he needs to at least divert the issue to the contribution of MCA and the worthiness of maintaining MCA in power. It is good for him to pose lots of questions and launch attack on DAP, but he also needs to prove why must the people continue to support MCA.

I am just curious about a few issues. Firstly, as generally known by a lot of people if not all, the toll collection is under the jurisdiction of Federal government. The State government has no authority on that. Anyhow, for fence-sitters, can they really accept the legally true fact? This is because like it or not, the toll is in Penang. How to convince people that they are not responsible for that? Or this is an ignorable issue?

Secondly, they touched on economy issue. However, economy issue is not just as surface as they debate. There are a lot of details that hardly can be understood by commoners. For example, why Penang state government can achieve surplus in such a short time? How can a government survive if keep on giving out money and benefits to the people. Are the people interested in this kind of developmental issues or they can be satisfied easily by giving them benefits only, ignoring the capability or economy efficiency of a government?

Anyhow, what I can notice from this debate is that Lim is trying to get to non-Chinese community as well through this debate. No wonder he is so eager for another round of Malay or English debate. His stance is non-controversial, trying to be as multiracial as possible. At the same time, Chua is trying to prove MCA position is local politics. Nothing’s wrong for both leaders. In fact, it is a good stance since DAP has already have strong support from the Chinese community. So it is the time to get to the non-Chinese community. For MCA, non-Chinese community might not be their concern. Definitely, they wouldn’t have chance to explore to non-Chinese majority seats with the fact that they are a Chinese-based political party and secondly, those seats will be grabbed firmly by UMNO.

In a nutshell, I will say that it is indeed a very good political debate. But sadly, the feasibility part is a bit lacking.

DO OR DIE

Want it or not, we need to accept the fact that Gerakan has moved to the irrelevancy zone post-2008 General Elections. In history of Malaysia politics, a fallen political party especially a ruling party (such as PPP in Perak and Labour Party in Penang) is hard to revive. The only way is to make a big impact or give the people a ‘wow’ factor before gaining back the support. The possibility of Gerakan to be back on track in Penang is very near to zero. What Gerakan can do now is to sustain an existence appearance in Penang (since significance appearance is almost impossible, existence appearance of around 5 state seats and 2 Parliamentary seats should be viable) for the next 2 to 3 terms. After successfully maintain its existence appearance, only then Gerakan can plan to gain back Penang state ruling rights. In business term, Gerakan needs to carry on their business for no profits for at least 10 years. In order to achieve that, there will only be two way. The first way is for the President, Koh Tsu Koon to change his political path; changing from low politics to high politics. Just like what Chua Soi Lek has done for MCA. He gives up a cabinet post so that he is not bonded with cabinet collective responsibility. He becomes more and more vocal even though the issues that he is trying to champion are going to bring the government a hardship. The second way is to choose a new and young leader, a non-controversial one, even with a non-name figure also will do, to lead the party. His or her main responsibility is to give a fresh look for Gerakan, assuming to reform Gerakan from zero. This will be better than lying on Gerakan’s old image which has been tarnished for tens of years especially in Penang.

SARAWAK STATE ELECTION PREDICTION

It might be kind of late but I haven’t really looked at the result yet. My personal prediction will be, i) BN is going to maintain their 2/3 majority, most probably between 50-60 seats. ii) DAP is going to increase their number of seats, previously is six.

SARAWAK STATE ELECTION

Sarawak state election is definitely around the corner. The latest date for it to dissolve its State Assembly is by July 2011. For those who have not yet register, please do so as soon as possible as you will name a few months before your name can be gazetted. Personally for me, General Election will not be as early as the same as Sarawak State election, but in politics, nothing is impossible. It is “the art of possible”. Do register yourself as a voter when you reach 21 years old.

FIRST LADY SUMMIT 2010

A controversy summit. One of my lecturers said that the summit is wasted as it has only been attended by less than 20 of world First Ladies. Worst still, most of them are from Africa Continent, which is a less develop continent. Furthermore, it isn’t really a cabinet idea of organizing it. If we look at administration policy theory, government governing should come from government of the day as only the government of the day has the right to use tax payers’ money. Others can provide their opinion but is not until a level where the government must be subjected to follow. However, during yesterday Parliament visit, Datuk Shahrir Samad gave a very good rebuttal for that. Does the summit really bring harms? Is it so important to have developed nations’ involvement before we can call it a success? Dr. Mahathir has shown to us that we, developing or non-Western countries can succeed without depending on Western and develop nations. According to Datuk Shahrir, perhaps we can look from another angle. Will it bring harms to Malaysia? If no, why can’t we give it a try? Dr. Mahathir trial on Look to the East policy (even more controversial as it might offend Western and Developed nations) is so successful. If this summit has been attended by Obama’s wife or British’s First Lady, it will be a success then. So, we can say that the issue here is about failing implementation of it, and not because of the summit itself. Anyhow, as realist put it, everybody will do things that will only benefit them. This theory is always true although most of us including myself don’t really like to accept it.

GIVE BACK RM 100

A few Malay Muslim elders give back Appreciation Money to Penang State Government because they worry that the money is coming from sin tax. When the somebody challenge the opposition to give back their monthly allowances as well since that might come from sin tax as well, the reply is that their allowances are coming from government taxation and not sin tax. I am pretty confused about that. Not really sure how the taxation system works. My question is how to differentiate between normal tax and sin tax. Do they have a separate account for sin tax? Can’t we assume that all the money coming from sin tax will be used for non-Muslim? If the Appreciation Money is coming from sin tax, why can’t the assemblymen monthly allowances are coming from sin tax as well? Is it really the types of money that matter or it is merely a political game?

THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I SUGGEST

When told that local government elections were not possible, the group had suggested that Khalid hold a mock local election exercise in the Petaling Jaya City Council area, whereby the top three candidates would be appointed councillors.
(Joceline Tan. Analysis: a wake up call for Anwar. The Star. 6 October 2010)

It is great every time I see my thought being suggested by somebody. Last time is about General Election 2008 that it is due to over-voting of protest votes. This time is about municipal election. Maybe because I am nobody and have no channel to suggest it, all my thoughts seem to be within myself only. What is it so different between real election and mock election since at the end of the day, procedures do not really matter. What matter the most is the reasons behind it.

TUN GET CHARGED

It is the first time a Tun gets charged in court. This is due to Port Klang Free Zone (PKFZ) crisis. The outcome of the trial will give a big impact towards BN especially MCA although his direct involvement in MCA is a history. Anyway, I believe that everything will be alright.

REWARDS FOR CHILDREN

Giving your children rewards is your own prerogative. Let say if a kid score well in his examination, parents can reward them by buying them a computer for example. However, this computer doesn’t means that it belongs to the kids forever. If out of a sudden, the kid’s result drops, the parents can take it back at anytime. Even if the kid’s result maintains, they still can take it back without needing to give a reason because that is their money anyway. Whether the action is rational or not, it is another story. To make the parents more respected by the children or others, they should let their kids know the reason for the forfeit. It is their right to know the reason behind it anyway.

DOMINATION VERSUS EQUAL PARTNERSHIP

Just read about an article in The Star discussing about equal partnership in PR. I do agree that PR does practise equal partnership in its alliance but it is something good or bad? When it comes to equal partnership, each party will have its say. Most if not all decisions made must be agreed upon by all component parties. Each party will look strong and not to be controlled or overpowered by another. However, in equal partnership, it is not easy to choose a leader or to come to consensus. After 2008 GE, PKR has the most seats in Parliament, followed by DAP and PAS. It is a good combination and coincidentally, it did happen. DAP Malaysian Malaysia does not goes well with PAS Islamic State; PKR is the one who manage to glue both together. Furthermore, as a multi-racial party with Malays as the top leader, no doubt that putting DAP as second most senior partner followed by PAS can make PR looked to be more balance in terms of racial composition. However, imagine if PKR is not the one with most Parliamentary seat, can DAP and PAS accept PKR leader as opposition leader? For the moment, they said can. But just imagine why a Malay leader from PAS can’t assume the head of PR if its party wins the most seats. Just imagine if Malay votes do not swing towards PR and only Chinese votes does, what will happen to PR next? Will they accept DAP as the head or will DAP accept other parties’ leader as the head? This situation did happened when DAP assumed the position of Parliament Opposition Leader quite often. In Malaysia politics, to be wholesomely represent the whole community, it is important for a political party to have Malays as its top leader and has more Malays MPs (I read it in somewhere and I personally do agree that Gerakan, DAP, PPP etc cannot be regarded as multiracial party). On the other hand, BN can guarantee it. Never in the history (if I am not mistaken) UMNO had less seat than any of its component party. The influence and strength held by UMNO also can guarantee this to happen. Even though for most people, UMNO seems to be over-dominated in BN. However, this domination can make the process of making decision fast. BN has also a clear leader without any dispute. UMNO President surely will become BN chairman and eventually Malaysia PM. However, this kind of domination has its bad side too. Other component parties will be labelled as weak. Therefore, it becomes harder for them to garner their own community’s support.

Whether domination or equal partnership is good, it is hard to argue theoretically. It has to be analyzed according to the situation and sentiment of the surrounding. For the moment, PR’s equal partnership seems to work well with the people compared to BN’s domination. PR might have the luck to win in such a good racial combination in Parliament and PR-controlled State Assemblies (except for Perak). However, if the few questions mentioned above do arise or the situation as in Perak where PR has more Chinese representatives than Malays in a Malay-majority state, can equal partnership still work well?

HULU SELANGOR BY ELECTION

Almost forget that today is the voting day for Hulu Selangor by election. It is a one to one fight between MIC’s Kamalanathan and PKR’s Datuk Zaid Ibrahim. Both candidates seem to be not the favourite for each party’s supporters. MIC prefers to have its deputy president, Palanivel to contest while Pakatan Rakyat grassroots’ supporters especially PKR prefers to have a local candidate rather than a parachute candidate. I don’t really that focus into this by election analysis due to examinations and thesis. Anyway, personally I predict that BN will win in this by election. My reasons are:

1. Politicking seems to be more serious in PKR rather than MIC. MIC supporters’ objection towards its candidate seems to be less serious than PKR.
2. Hulu Selangor actually is a stronghold for BN although PKR did manage to grab it in 2008 general election.
3. PKR has too many negative issues like its members resign from PKR and join UMNO. Meanwhile, Dato’ Seri Najib seems to be pretty well in handling political and local issues (if we were to ignore statements from his deputy).

Basically, I think that this by election is more to whether which party can do better damage control and has less negative issues should be able to win it.

MCA ELECTION RESULT

One correct and one wrong. That is how my predictions work. Datuk Seri Chua Soi Lek has been elected as new MCA president together with Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai as his deputy. Surprisingly, I get all my three guessing correct for 4 vice president posts. I am quite sure that Datuk Seri Dr. Ng Yen Yen will win the election. However for Datuk Donald Lim Siang Chai and Datuk Chor Chee Heung, basically it is just my guessing game. My logic behind is that both of them are more famous compared to the others. Seriously, among 10 of the contenders, I have only heard the names of four contenders. Other than the 3 winners, another contender that I have heard before is Datuk Yap Pian Hon. Maybe is because he was Serdang MP where UKM is located. Anyway, I don’t think that his chance of winning is high. In politics or whatever organization, when your time is over, it means that you have reached the end. I feel that this is what happened to him. He might be a big name last time, but not now anymore. The fourth winner for the vice presidency is Gan Ping Sieu. Frankly, I never heard about his name before. Same goes to the former vice president (a senator, but not sure whether he is still a senator now) before Central Committee (CC) was dissolved. Maybe it is my personal problem because lacking of knowledge and information. It is also possible that MCA is now lacking of famous and popular leaders. That is why I don’t know about them. For the 25 CC posts, candidates that win are from all 3 fractions. This outcome shows that none of the fraction can absolutely dominate CC. The most eager question that comes out from most of the people will be: can Chua and Liow work together since Ong and Chua can’t work together before this. Frankly, I am a bit pessimistic about this unless Liow is accorded with what a usual deputy president should get such as a ministerial post, MCA chief for a particular state etc.

*quoted from The Star:
The former MCA deputy president polled 901 votes. His nearest challenger was Tan Sri Ong Ka Ting, who received 833 votes while incumbent party president Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat garnered 578 votes.


Deputy: In the straight fight for the deputy presidency, Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai won over Datuk Seri Kong Cho Ha. Liow received 1,171 votes to Kong’s 1,106 votes.

Vice-presidents: Datuk Seri Dr Ng Yen Yen (1528 votes), Datuk Donald Lim Siang Chai (1469), Datuk Chor Chee Heung (1202) and Gan Ping Sieu (1202).

Central Committee Members
1. Lee Chee Leong - 1,430
2. Hou Kok Chung - 1,312
3. Heng Seai Kie - 1,267
4. Wee Jeck Seng - 1,175
5. Toh Chin Yaw - 1,142
6. Tee Siew Kiong - 1,141
7. Gan Tian Loo - 1,117
8. Tan Chai Ho - 1,114
9. Ong Ka Chuan - 1,104
10. Lee Wei Kiat - 1,100
11. Loh Seng Kok - 1,086
12. Hoh Khai Mun - 1,077
13. Liew Yuen Keong - 1,059
14. Tan Cheng Liang - 1,054
15. Koh Nai Kwong - 1,040
16. Por Choo Chor - 1,037
17. Tan Ken Ten - 999
18. Kong Sing Chu - 981
19. Chong Itt Chew - 975
20. Yoo Wei How - 974
21. Tan Ah Eng - 969
22. Wong Koon Mun - 953
23. Ti Lian Ker - 929
24. Teh Kim Poo - 864
25. Chuah Poh Khiang - 851

MCA ELECTION

It is a very interesting party election with very small margin I guess. For the presidential post, 3 candidates are vying for that. They are incumbent president Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat, former president Tan Sri Ong Ka Ting and former deputy president Datuk Seri Chua Soi Lek. This is a very competitive competition. 3 of them don’t really have majority support. Since it is a 3 corners fight, it will depend on who gets the most votes.

Ong Tee Keat might have the support from a lot of ordinary Chinese community for PKFZ issue. He has been viewed as a hero who dares to fight against big powers and fight against corruption. However, he might not be as popular as he is among MCA delegates. MCA delegates are elected among the top leaders or those who have great influences in that division. Usually, this group of delegates might have personal interests in the outcome of the result. Those who win the election might determine the fate of certain group of people. Ong Tee Keat at the same time is seemed to be a person who doesn’t know how to carry out himself (Chinese saying of “Bu Hui Zhuo Ren” and “Dang Ren Cai Lu”). This might not favour a significant number of voters.

Chua Soi Lek on the other hand might have the number of support. This can be seen through how he pushed for EGM last time. He was able to garner about 800 signatures to push for that EGM. If the delegates are not pro-Chua Soi Lek, they might not dare to sign it. Their name will be known public. My friend told me that the signatures might include those who anti-Ong Tee Keat. However, personally I don’t view that as a main concern. I don’t feel that the number is that big. Furthermore, those who anti-Ong Tee Keat have no choice but to vote for either Chua Soi Lek or Ong Ka Ting. Mathematically, only portions of the signature are anti-Ong Tee Keat. From that particular group, only another portion will vote for Ong Ka Ting. That is why I don’t see that as a big problem.

For Ong Ka Ting, a loyal veteran said before, his fraction is going to split MCA even more. It is the first time such a former president re-stands for a party election. I don’t really see he has lots of influence when he was the president. Furthermore, he is lucky to get that post because of MCA crisis between fraction A (led by Tun Ling Liong Sik) and fraction B (led by Tan Sri Lim Ah Lek). Personally, I don’t really see him to have lots of support in this election.

In a nutshell, personally I guess that Chua Soi Lek will win this MCA election. This guess might not be accurate since the election is so competitive. For deputy president post, 2 candidates who fight for the post are former vice presidents Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai and Dato’ Seri Kong Cho Ha. Liow Tiong Lai is aligned with Ong Ka Ting while Kong Cho Ha is the running mate for Chua Soi Lek. Other than personality will determine their fate, their partnership with presidency candidate will affect their winning too. Liow Tiong Lai seems to be more famous than Kong Cho Ha. However, his action of forcing Ong Tee Keat to comes down as president has been viewed as a traitor’s action. This might affect his chances of winning. Kong Cho Ha might not have big issue to help or make him loses the votes. Basically for me, it is more to whether people still wants a leader like Liow Tiong Lai and the effect of their running mate. I guess Kong Cho Ha will be the victor.

CONTENTLESS AND ONE SIDED FORUM

Hujah 16/2/10. The topic for the forum that day is about Malays being sidelined by DAP government. As a Penangite, I do disagree with a lot of the arguments brought forward. Why no representative from DAP??? But it does make me laugh for a few seconds when listening to their arguments. Panellists are so supportive to one side and unreasonable criticising towards another side. Haih…

NO PERMANENT FRIENDS IN POLITICS

Malaysia Chinese Association - MCA

Incumbent President

New Deputy President


Are there permanent and sincere friends in politics? Is forcing Ong to step down is the only way to solve MCA’s crisis? Are the Central Committee (CC) members sincere in what they have done or they did it just for their personal interest? Is Liow a truly MCA’s guy or only a person of himself? There seems to be no sincerity in politics. Only interest will prevail.

WHO WILL BE MCA PRESIDENT

The EGM’s result really gives me a shock. Don’t expect the result to be that way. The first motion of no confidence towards Ong has been passed by a margin of 14 votes (1155 against 1141). The second motion to cancel off decision made by Presidential Council has been passed with 1204 votes against 1095. While the third motion which is about the restoration of Chua as deputy president has failed 1110 votes supporting it and 1184 going against it.

The main question becoming out next will be: who is the next MCA President? Will Ong resign as what he has promised even though MCA Constitution doesn’t require him to do so?

MCA’S EGM

MCA PRESIDENT, DATUK SERI ONG TEE KEAT

MCA DEPUTY PRESIDENT (before he is being suspended), DATUK SERI DR. CHUA SOI LEK

Initially, it is about whether Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat, Datuk Seri Dr. Chua Soi Lek or both will stay as MCA’s leaders. For me, the best result that can accommodate both leaders is that the motion of no confidence towards president will fail while the motion to reinstate Dr. Chua as deputy president will succeed. This might be the best solution to accommodate both leaders but it is not a best solution to solve MCA’s crisis.

The courage of Ong to gamble the biggest bet in his political career might solve the MCA’s long term crisis. Ong will voluntarily step down as party’s president if his deputy is being reinstated. So now, the delegates can only choose either one of them. For me, this do-or-die gambling game put forward by Ong will increase his chance of winning, but at the same time, if he were to lose, he is going to lose everything and his political career will end there.

Anyhow, I personally feel that Ong will win in this fight. It is not that hard to accept a scandal tainted deputy president, but when it comes to presidency, a lot of issues will be taken into account. Sex scandal in Malaysia is still a very big taboo. The mentality of Malaysian Chinese is still not yet up to the level of acceptance towards sex scandal.

BAGAN PINANG BY-ELECTION

PAS (left) and BN (right) candidates

It is a fight between Tan Sri Mohd Isa Samad (BN) and Zulkefly Mohd Omar (PAS). 13, 664 voters are eligible to vote. If this seat goes to BN, it means that BN is still strong is its area and Isa’s influence is still there. He still has chance to revive his political career. However, if the seat goes to PAS, it shows that political tsunami has not ended yet. This is one of the interesting by-elections as the incumbent for this seat is BN. My prediction is that the seat will go to BN. Majority does not really important in this by-election unless the margin is too small or too big like what happen is Manek Urai.

BN candidate with DPM/UMNO Deputy President

PAS candidate with Pakatan Rakyat's leaders

SAMY VELLU IS STILL TAIKO

latest line-up for MIC President, Deputy President, and Vice Presidents

Samy Vellu’s influence in MIC is still very strong with the winning of his preferred deputy president Datuk G. Palanivel, vice presidents (Datuk S. Subramaniam, Datuk S.K. Devamany and Datuk M. Saravanan) and 19 of 23 CWC post.

For the Deputy President post, Datuk G. Palanivel garnered 629 votes, won over Datuk S. Subramaniam (former deputy president) who garnered 547 votes while Datuk S. Sothinathan managed to get 280 votes. The question is, if Datuk S. Sothinathan did not contest in this post, will Datuk S. Subramaniam able to win the post? Who will the voters for Datuk S. Sothinathan votes for if he did not contest? Is the 280 votes garnered by Datuk S. Sothinathan a sign of support to him or is a sign of anti-Samy Vellu designed deputy president?

PAKATAN RAKYAT TAKES OVER OR BARISAN NASIONAL STAYS

Bagan Pinang's ADUN Azman Mohammad Noor

Ninth by-election is on the way. Negeri Sembilan Bagan Pinang state assemblyman Azman Mohammad Noor passed away on Friday. It will be an interesting by-election compared to by-elections before this since its incumbent is from BN. WHO IS GOING TO WIN IT??? I can’t predict it easily either. More researches have to be done first. If Pakatan Rakyat were to win this by-election, this shows that Pakatan Rakyat’s support and momentum does not stop since the 12th general election. If BN were to win it, it means that BN is still strong in their stronghold no matter what kind of political tsunami has happened.

Anyhow, I still don’t understand why we have so many by-elections this time around. Even after minus the forced by-election, we still had five by-elections (include this one will be six) because of death of MP or assemblyman. Is it because of both BN and PR did not screen their candidates in terms of their health conditions or as PAS leader said before, it is fate and only God can determine it?