Voices of a young scholar: TRI-ELECTION, MY PREDICTION

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

TRI-ELECTION, MY PREDICTION

War of flags

This tri-election has set a few records for the Malaysia politics. First, Malaysia has three by-elections at the same time. Second, Bukit Selambau sets a record for the most candidates vying for a seat. Third, a former Menteri Besar (certain people still regard Datuk Seri Nizar Jamaluddin as the legitimate Menteri Besar) who is still holding his state seat vying for a Parliament seat.

Barisan Nasional supporters

PAS supporters

PKR supporters

BUKIT GANTANG PARLIAMENT SEAT
Ismail Saffian (BN) vs Datuk Seri Nizar Jamaluddin (PAS) vs Kamarul Ramizu Idris (INDEPENDENT)

I’m quite confident that Datuk Seri Nizar Jamaluddin will win this seat. Firstly, the seat is formerly held by PAS. Secondly, the sentiment for Pakatan Rakyat is still very strong especially after the change of state government. Thirdly, even if an ordinary PAS member is going to fight for the seat, the chances of winning is high. Whatsoever it is Datuk Seri Nizar who fights for that. The chances will even become higher. Fourthly, a lot of pity votes will go to Pakatan Rakyat because of the losing of state government.

From left : Ismail, Nizar and Kamarul

Current and former Perak Menteri Besar

Nizar is trying to fried Char Koay Teow

Big guns of UMNO : Deputy President Tan Sri Muyhiddin Yassin, Vice President Datuk Seri Dr. Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Menberi Besar of Perak Datuk Dr. Zambry Zbdul Kadir

BUKIT SELAMBAU STATE SEAT
S. Ganesan (BN) vs Manikumar (PKR) vs 13 independent candidates

It is very hard to predict the outcome of this by-election. This election is not about who is the best to win. This election is more to whose votes is less affected by the 13 independent candidates. If I’m forced to make a prediction, I’ll give the winning to PKR. Firstly, if PKR were to win, the candidate will be an EXCO. Secondly, I do not the new premier has a big impact of the by-election although he has released 2 Hindraf ISA detainees.

Biggest ever voting ballot

Ganesan (BN)

BN Billboard

Manikumar (PKR)

With his supporters

BATANG AI STATE SEAT
Malcom Mussem Lamoh (BN) vs Jawah Gerang (PKR)

This seat is about loyalty between candidate and party. Jawah Gerang has been a familiar face to the locals since he had been Lubok Antu MP for 5 terms. At the same time, Batang Ai is a stronghold for BN. People have to choose between candidate and party. For this seat, I’ll give the winning to BN. I don’t feel that Pakatan Rakyat has the needed influence and support is rural Sabah and Sarawak areas yet. If PKR is so lucky to win this seat, it becomes an indicator that Pakatan Rakyat has finally able to break into BN stronghold which I think is less possible.